Rubik87 wrote:jimmi wrote:...in the sense that it will usually hurt a player with many pieces, and leave a losing player mostly unscathed.
but I guess regular bombs already does some of that.
I don't know, jimmi.. Bombs have more chance to hit you if you have a lot of tori, but if you have very few tori each hit you take does a lot more damage.
Onco or someone else may help with some accurate calculation, but I think that the chance of having 25% of you army destroyed by bombs is more or less the same whether (sic) you have 20 tori or 4. Am I wrong?
The question: What are the odds that you will hit 25% of your opponents squad with a volley of Bombs?
The hypothesis: The odds are roughly the same no matter how many tori your opponent has left.
The method: Write an excel macro that steps through all of the different combinations in which a volley of Bombs can hit a given number of enemy tori - calculate the probability of each event - add those probabilities to find the probability of hitting a set number of tori with a volley of bombs. The program allows you vary the number of arena tiles, bombs in a volley, enemy tori, friendly tori, destroyed foes, and Smart status.
The data: Displayed as chance to hit 25% or more of the enemy squad. The effect with Smart Bombs cases are calculated assuming your squad is at full force (20 tori).
- Code: Select all
Enemies Hit Bombs Smarties
20 5+ 27.8% 54.4%
16 4+ 32.4% 56.0%
12 3+ 37.8% 58.0%
8 2+ 44.9% 61.0%
4 1+ 56.0% 66.8%
The conclusion: Sanzo's hypothesis is incorrect. You have a higher chance of losing a quarter or more of your squad during a standard 16-bombs volley in a 8x10 arena if you have fewer tori. This difference is less with Smart Bombs, but the absolute chance of losing a quarter or more of your squad is greater with Smart Bombs.
The interpretation: Bombs have a proportionally greater effect on players with fewer tori. They still serve as potential net equalizers, but carry a significant risk of self-obliteration (18.2% if you have a lone torus to start with).
Analysis of the Smart Bombs scenario reveals that Smart Bombs do, in fact, suck. Yes, they could serve as equalizers for the losing player, but by definition, the losing player is less likely to get Smart Bombs since they are losing. Even if they get Smart Bombs, the damage they could do to an opponent is proportionately much less than the damage enemy Smart Bombs could do to them. If you have few tori, the statistical advantage gained by reducing the effective tile numbers goes away and Smart Bombs approach being Bombs without the chance of self destruction.
Future Analysis: Let me know what other situations you want statistics for.